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20 settembre
2011
A leading economist has predicted continuing
slow growth in the near term for both the US and Europe, with the
solution being a review of the role of finance in the real economy,
during this week’s CoreNet Global Summit in Paris.
During a session designed to better understand the latest market
upheavals and potential impacts on corporate real estate, Catherine
Lubochinsky, Professor of Economics at the University of Paris 2 and
Member, Cercle des Economistes, predicted that in the near term, the
US and Europe will experience continuing slow growth and lower real
wages.
Giving consideration to how these major markets can get out of the
‘current economic mess and onto firmer footing’, Lubochinsky said
that the role of finance has to be revisited. "It's too big for the
real economy," she cautioned. "Finance can destabilise the real
economy."
The real economy, she explained, has to do with productivity and
employment. And we haven't seen much of those lately.
There's ample evidence of the outsized influence of financial
markets and the disconnect between finance and the real economy.
In 2010, for instance, the value of bonds, equities and bank assets
in the US exceeded 431 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In
the Eurozone, it was 533 percent. In the UK, the figure was 850
percent.
"It's very easy for China to influence the price of public debt,
whether US or Europe," Lubochinsky said. "They both want China to
buy their bonds."
The US and Europe face a conundrum: Governments need to increase
spending to spur growth, but they also need to reduce deficits. "If
anyone has the answer to this, please let me know," she joked.
Concerning tax, she said: "We need taxes because we need to invest
in infrastructure, research and education. Sorry for the bad news."
After her remarks, she opened up the dialogue to a panel that
included Michael (Mike) Zamora, MCR, Senior Manager Asia & Pacific
Regions, Cisco Systems; NLB Capital's Nigel Baker, Past President,
CoreNet Global UK Chapter; Ryan Eargle, Director of Real Estate
Services, MassMutual Financial Group; and Sanjay Dutt, CEO –
Business, Jones Lang LaSalle (India).
"Fifteen years ago, Asia was viewed as a place for back-office
operations. Now, these economies have grown tremendously and are
large consumer markets in their own right," Zamora reasoned.
"India has a tremendous opportunity," agreed Dutt. "India's
macro-fundamentals are very strong. Companies can have a bigger work
force in India than they do in the US."
"But the big challenge for emerging markets is distribution of
income," cautioned Lubochinsky.
"In the US, you do have a certain disconnect," Eargle pointed out. "Corporate
profits have been extraordinary, and corporate balance sheets are
strong, yet the economy is weak."
This year’s Summit has taken the theme “Social Dynamics:
Connectivity, Creativity, Relationships”, exploring the global
social change that has led people to connect across cultures and
continents on both a personal and corporate level, using new tools
to form new alliances and expand their reach.
The Summit has also welcomed members of CoreNet Global’s new France
Networking Group, which was launched in early 2011 and has already
enjoyed a successful programme of events of its own in the French
capital. The Group forms an important part of CoreNet Global’s
strong presence in the EMEA region, where there are also active
regional Chapters in the Benelux, Central Europe, Middle East and
the United Kingdom.
Johnson Controls, Compass Group, Regus and BNP Paribas Real Estate
are Platinum sponsors of the Paris Summit, with Gold sponsors CB
Richard Ellis, Jones Lang LaSalle and Global Switch, and Silver
sponsors including Steelcase, Qube Global Software, Eurocres, Ahrend
and Procos Group.
The CoreNet Global EMEA Summit is taking place this week at Disney’s
Newport Bay Club, Paris.
Fonte: CS dell’Associazione
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