Il “Market Outlook” sul Giappone di Merrill Lynch

2 aprile 2007

BlackRock’s MLIIF Japan Value Fund (Società di Investment Management), facente capo al colosso Merrill Lynch, con una Nota diffusa in data 2 aprile ha annunciato la sua espansione nei mercati giapponesi.
La Nota redatta da Rob Weatherston (Fund Manager of BlackRock’s MLIIF Japan Value Fund) recita che « government figures released on March 22 showed the first increase in Japanese national land prices in 16 years, with central Tokyo showing a dramatic 18% rise. These gains are being driven by low interest rates, the continued strength of the economy and the rehabilitation of the banking sector. This break of the downward trend in land values is enormously important for the national psychology and establishes the foundations for a strong recovery in consumption. Corporate earnings are likely to set another record in the year to March 2007 with the Nomura 400 index of leading companies expected to break out of the long deflationary slump and show sales growth of 8%. A new theme emerging in 2007 could be greater levels of merger and acquisition activity as well as more activist private equity bids, driven by very cheap financing and substantial scope for easy gains through corporate restructuring. The significant liquidity currently flowing into the real estate market could soon be finding exciting opportunities in the stock market instead».
Il Comunicato prosegue illustrando che «local elections in April will be a key test for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and there is a very real chance that Prime Minister Abe could lose control of the Upper House in the July general elections. Ahead of these elections there is now a risk of continued populist newsflow as Abe struggles to reposition himself as the friend of the average voter. Public opinion ratings are falling and there are signs of an economic policy vacuum emerging at the centre of government».
La Nota conclude affermando che «the lack of recovery in consumption until now is probably the single most important issue for the Japanese economy - and why the latest land price figures are so significant. From here, further support will come from tightness in the labour market which is set to drive wage growth in 2007 as annual contracts are renegotiated. Labour incomes classically behave with a lag to the overall cycle and they will start to turn up in response to improved corporate profits. At the same time, we expect to see falling unit labour costs as the baby boom generation of expensive older workers starts to retire en masse. Combined, these factors are expected to be positive for both consumption and for the stock market».