Il mercato 2007 secondo Aberdeen. Salgono le "Nordic"

9 marzo 2007

«Aberdeen says 2006 was a golden year for European property with Western Europe recording the strongest economic expansion in six years, with real GDP increasing by 2.8%. Forecasts for 2007 indicate that the region will generate weaker growth at 2.2% mainly as a result of weaker global demand and the higher interest rate environment.
Direct commercial real estate investment transactions in Europe areestimated to have reached a record €242 billion, an increase of 50% from 2005 and investment activity is due to remain strong in 2007. However, transaction volumes are likely to be below last year’s record level due to the limited availability of adequately priced real estate assets.
Aberdeen predicts that total European all property returns in 2006 will reach a new record of 14.1% and that Ireland, Norway and the UK will deliver the highest all property total returns. Aberdeen also expects that Germany will continue to be the weakest performing country in terms of returns, although our forecasts indicate that total all property returns in 2006 will have increased strongly from just 0.5% in 2005 to 9.4% in 2006.
European office markets will continue to recover with improved market fundamentals in 2007. The majority of markets are recording lower vacancies, higher levels of gross take-up and rental growth. Rental growth in 2006 was especially strong in Oslo, Dublin, London, Barcelona, Madrid, and Paris. Aberdeen expects the worst performing office markets in terms of rental growth to be in Germany, Brussels, Amsterdam and Milan this year.
The retail sector across Europe continues to perform very well with rental growth prospects looking more positive than in the office sector. The strongest development activity is in Italy, Finland, Spain and Poland and Aberdeen predicts that the best returns will be generated in Ireland and France at 16.4% and 15.9% respectively. On the other hand, the UK retail market is expected to produce the weakest returns at 5.7% p.a. due to weakening consumer spending and limited prospects for further inward yield shift.
Jon Lekander, Head of Investment Strategy at Aberdeen Property Investors commented: "We expect average European property total returns to decrease to 7.7% in 2007 due to a diminishing effect of yield compression. In response to this we expect returns to be supported by income growth this year"
Alessandro Bronda, Head of Research at Aberdeen Property Investors commented: "2006 was a record year for European property with returns reaching new highs. However, the economic environment is not looking as favorable going forward and investors will need to concentrate on identifying assets with decent rental growth potential" ». Aberdeen expects the Nordic property markets to outperform the rest of Europe in 2007 despite predicting a deceleration in total returns in the region as capital values weaken.
The Nordic property markets have been recovering strongly, with rental levels increasing and vacancies generally decreasing across most cities and sectors. The recovery is underpinned by strong fundamentals, with the Nordic region expected to continue outperforming Core Europe in terms of economic growth. Real GDP is predicted to have reached 3.9% in 2006, significantly higher than the 2.7% forecast for the Euro Zone as a whole.
Aberdeen estimates that total unleveraged property returns in 2006 will have amounted to 15.1% in the Nordic region, which would represent an increase of 210 basis points compared to 2005.
Aberdeen’s 2007 forecast for total Nordic property returns of 10.3% compares favorably to the 8.1% predicted for Europe as a whole. Aberdeen is expecting office returns in 2007 to be weaker in all four countries compared to the record expected returns of 2006 with the best performance predicted for Norway at 14.5%. The office sector is expected to do well due to a continued improvement in market fundamentals and somewhat stronger growth in services employment. With the exception of Sweden, we are forecasting that offices will outperform retail in the Nordic region this year.
Jon Lekander, Head of Investment Strategy at Aberdeen Property Investors commented;
"The Nordic Region remains an interesting market for international investors looking for strong growth and regional diversity. All four countries are performing well, but Norway stands out as the best single market for 2006."
Alessandro Bronda, Head of Research at Aberdeen Property Investors commented;
"The Nordic Region’s strong economic growth continues to create a healthy demand for property investment. We predict investment volumes in commercial real estate are likely to have reached a record high in 2006 and expect them to remain at a high level through 2007".
Aberdeen Property Investors is the specialised property division of Aberdeen Asset Management plc, a global investment management group listed on the London Stock Exchange and managing over EUR 100 billion of assets.
Aberdeen Property Investors manages some EUR 10 billion in property investments through property funds and management mandates on behalf of its institutional client base. The division has some 500 employees at offices in ten European countries.
Aberdeen was named the leading Property Investment Manager; Globally, in Western Europe and in the Nordic & Baltic regions in the Euromoney Awards 2006 for Excellence in Real Estate. (CS della Società)

Nella Foto: Alessandro Bronda