12 marzo 2008

"Aberdeen Property Investors is predicting returns of 1.9% in European property in 2008 as a result of declining capital values. Total “All Property” returns were already down in 2007, with Aberdeen estimating returns of 3.7% for the year compared with the record 13.3% achieved the previous year. All countries generated positive returns in 2007, with the exception of the UK which recorded negative All Property returns of 3.4%. In 2008, Aberdeen expects Norway and Finland to produce the best returns. The credit crunch has resulted in a re-pricing of property with the UK being the first market in Europe to see yields move up higher. The UK market saw capital values decline by around 10% in the second-half of 2007 and Aberdeen expects further declines at the beginning of 2008. As for the rest of Europe, property yields in general are believed to have held up well in the latter half of 2007, but are now likely to see upward adjustments, albeit not to the same extent as in the UK. Aberdeen is predicting the strongest upward yield shift movements this year in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Spain, Portugal and Italy. Total investment turnover in European commercial real estate is estimated to have remained at a high level last year at around €235bn. During 2007, France, Germany and the Netherlands
recorded increased investment activity compared to 2006, while the UK, Ireland, Poland and Sweden registered declines. Aberdeen expects European investment activity in 2008 to weaken by around 30% as highly leveraged investors are likely to be considerably less active due to the increased cost of raising debt capital and, as a consequence, Aberdeen expects fewer large deals. However, we expect to see increased activity from equity investors who are likely to take advantage of a higher yield environment with fewer buyers. Despite the anticipated slowdown in transaction activity, there remain significant amounts of equity committed to real estate investment. There remains a large divergence in growth outlooks across Europe. Western Europe is forecast to have GDP growth of 1.9% in 2008, down from 2.7% last year, while Eastern Europe is projected to generate strong GDP growth of 6.0% this year. Although the consensus is predicting an economic slowdown, an increasing number of forecasting houses believe the US is likely to go into recession this year. Alessandro Bronda, Head of Investment Strategy at Aberdeen Property Investors commented: “We believe future performance is going to be increasingly dependent upon the underlying fundamentals of the market rather than yield compression. Property returns in future will be driven essentially by rental growth, with active asset management playing an increasingly important role in boosting performance at the investment level.” (CS della Società)

Nella foto, Alessandro Bronda