12 marzo 2008

Nel corso di un' affaollata Conferenza Stampa all' Hotel Gray D' Albion di Cannes, CB Riochard Ellis, la società multinazionale di consulenza immobiliare ha annunciato i dati 2007 del "commercial real estate investment market " : che ha raggiunto i 246 milioni di euro , con una crescita del 6 % rispetto all' anno precedente. Ecco i dettagli del Comunicato:

"The effects of the constrained credit markets were noticeable in the fourth quarter, but were largely limited to the UK. In fact, continental European investment activity in the fourth quarter (excluding the UK) actually achieved a record high at €45 billion, beating the previous high of €42.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Property values followed a similar pattern. Yields in the UK have risen, with the City of London prime office yields showing a 150 bps increase from the low point in mid 2007 and the IPD All Property monthly index showing a 13.5% decrease in UK capital values. This yield shift has already attracted some investors back into the Central London market and there are signs that prime yields are starting to stabilise at close to current levels.

In contrast the prime yield movement in most European cities has been less pronounced and generally, there has been no more than a 20-40 bps increase in yields.

One explanation for the very different yield trends in the UK versus Continental Europe is the difference in rental growth in Europe’s main office markets. In the two years leading up to December 2007, the prime rent in London has increased by 50% in the West End and 42% in the City. Outside Central & Eastern Europe only Madrid has been close to this level at a 47% increase while Paris at 17%, Frankfurt at 16%, Munich at 5% and Milan at 4% have, by comparison, greater potential for further increases as long as the underlying economies remain sound.

"What is clear is that yield shift is no longer the driver of real estate returns and that out-performance in 2008 is most likely to come from rental growth," said Nick Axford, Head of EMEA Research for CB Richard Ellis. "This makes the economic outlook key to how the market evolves this year. If the European economy remains relatively stable, the underlying fundamentals of the market will remain attractive."

2007 saw the continuation of several long-term trends, in particular the sale of property by owner-occupiers, whose sales totalled more than €45 billion in 2007 (18.5% of all transactions) representing year-on-year growth of 33%. Headline grabbing deals such as Banco Santander’s sales in Spain and the HSBC tower at Canary Wharf dominated news coverage, but this trend is continuing to penetrate deeper into the European market, spreading to more and more countries including France, Italy and Spain.

Despite the slowdown in the UK market, Central London remained the largest European investment market, with total sales activity of €31 billion in 2007.

2007 Top Ten European Investment Markets

Turnover € million

% of European Market*

London
31,290
16.1

Paris
19,835
10.2

Frankfurt
8,366
4.3

Munich
6,555
3.4

Stockholm
6,020
3.1

Berlin
5,949
3.1

Hamburg
5,122
2.6

Madrid
4,042
2.1

Moscow
3,367
1.7

Amsterdam
2,767
1.4

* Excluding indivisible multi-city portfolios

Overall, eight of the top ten investment markets were unchanged from 2006. However, the two new entrants to the top ten were significant:

Moscow, with total sales of €3.4 billion, illustrating the rapid growth of the Russian market; and

Amsterdam, with volume of €2.8 billion, which benefited from the improving Dutch economy and investors’ preference for secure, transparent markets in the second half of the year.

Another notable feature of the top ten is the very high threshold for entry. Amsterdam was the tenth ranked market with €2.8 billion of activity in 2007. This compares with 2005, when Madrid filled the tenth place, with a turnover of €1.5 billion. In 2007 there were 22 markets that had investment market activity of more than €1.5 billion.

The strongest percentage growth (year-on-year) was seen in some of the smaller European markets: for instance, activity in Hungary and Luxembourg more than doubled. However, there was also significant growth in Czech Republic, Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal, Spain and Romania, all of which saw increases of more than 40%. In addition to the UK, only Sweden, Ireland and Poland experienced noteworthy declines in investment activity.

Jonathan Hull, Executive Director of EMEA Capital Markets, CB Richard Ellis, said: "It has been interesting to see how quickly some investors have come back into the Central London market. In the first few months of 2008 there have been a number of notable deals. There does, however, remain an air of caution, as these deals have generally involved ‘motivated’ sellers such as the UK Open-end funds and REITs."

"On the continent, the active parties at the moment are exactly those we would expect, given the current market conditions. The sellers are REITs and other listed property companies and the higher leveraged investment funds. The buyers are those who use a high proportion of equity, such as the German Open-ended Funds and funds who have access to institutional capital sources," he added." (CS della Società)