28 febbraio 2008

«Aberdeen believes that the investment market to slow in 2008, but significant amounts of equity remain committed. Aberdeen expects Europan investment activity in 2008 to weaken by around 30% as highly leveraged investors are likely to be considerably less active. Aberdeen also expects fewer large deals due to the current difficulty in raising debt capital. However, it is expected that there will be increased activity from equity investors who are likely to take advantage of a higher yield environment with fewer buyers.

In summary:
Property returns to weaken significantly in 2008
Aberdeen predicts that in 2008, Europe will generate total returns of just 1.9%, as a result of upward yield shifts and declining capital values.

Sharp UK pricing adjustment to continue
Aberdeen's forecasts indicate that the UK will generate all propoerty returns of -0.6% this year, although they are expecting a strong rebound in returns in 2009.

Consensus Economics predicts an economic slowdown in 2008, but the risk of a US recession has increased

Market fundamentals and active asset management to drive future performance
Aberdeen believe rgar future performance is going to be increasingly dependent upon the underlying fundamentals of the market rather than by yield compression. Indeed, Aberdeen predicts that yields will drift higher across most countries and secotrs in 2008.

Active asset management can add value
Real estate managers will look to add value using active property management strategies, such as carrying out refurbishment or redevelopment, re-negotiating lease terms or restructuring property ownership.

Satisfactory office fundamentals
Aberdeen believes that most European offices currently have satisfactory market fundamentals. The majority of markets are recording lower vacancies, higher levels of gross take-up and rental growth.

Good retail rental growth prospects
The retail sector across continental Europe continues to perform well with rental growth prospects rated positively for most markets. The strongest development activity is occuring in Italy, Finland, Spain and Poland. Aberdeen is predicting that UK retail will produce the weakest returns this year due to yields moving further out» (CS della Societą) .