MSCI Real Assets has published its global 2023 look-ahead piece for commercial real estate. The following are the main themes:
- The outlook is the most uncertain since 2008, during the Global Financial Crisis
- Income will be the main driver of investment returns in 2023, requiring owners to focus on rental growth, occupancy and operating costs. This is particularly the case for the office market, which is at a “structural turning point”
- Industrial real estate remains well placed relative to other sectors, underpinned by lower levels of vacancy and superior growth in net operating income
- The “green premium” for buildings with sustainability ratings will galvanise owners to invest in buildings to reduce energy emissions; sales pricing will reflect capital expenditure required to bring buildings up to standards demanded either by the market or by legislation
- London office prices need to decline by 29.3% to drive transaction volumes back to normal activity levels
- Prices in New York’s office market also need to decline by 10.4% to lift transactions to normal levels
Source : Company